Sarasota Area Real Estate Market Update: September 2026 - New Listings and Under Contract

Closed sales tell you what already happened. New listings and pending sales tell you where the market is heading, and the September 2026 numbers point one direction: tighter. According to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee (RASM), whose Q3 2026 report was released October 16, active inventory and months of supply kept falling through September, both below year-ago levels, while new pending single-family sales declined for the month. The listings that did come on the market, priced honestly, moved to pending quickly, and the condo and townhome segment kept tightening the fastest. This is the full Sarasota real estate market report on new listings, under-contract activity, and inventory for the month, with the source for every figure.

I am Kim Donahue, REALTOR with Medway Realty, license SL3352997, and I have been tracking this market for more than 30 years. These are the numbers I watch most closely, because they tell me what is coming next. Where a monthly figure is not published by the official sources, I mark it plainly and give you the freshest verified reading, the same way I do in every update.

Single-Family Homes: New Listings and Pending Sales

New supply stayed thin all month. Sarasota County's weekly MLS tallies ran 253, 246, 271, and 295 new listings across the four reported September weeks, roughly 1,065 new listings in the tracked window, and the Manatee County weekly counts ran 251, 209, 217, 211, and 227. That is not a surge. It is a steady, modest flow, and after the month's closed sales are netted out, the region's active inventory still fell. RASM reported that active inventory and months of supply both declined again in September, with Sarasota County single-family active listings down 16.2 percent year over year for the quarter, and months of supply down from 4.8 at mid-year to 3.7 by quarter-end. The supply squeeze has the same two familiar causes: homeowners who bought or refinanced at low rates are staying put, and new construction, while active in Parrish, North Port, and Wellen Park, is not closing the gap.

Demand, meanwhile, held up on a smaller pool. Sarasota County pending sales ran 202, 204, 177, and 210 across the four reported weeks, and Manatee County ran 183, 133, 156, 172, and 179. RASM's quarterly read shows new pending single-family sales declined for September against a year earlier, which sounds softer until you line it up against the inventory that kept shrinking: there were simply fewer homes to go under contract. The listings that arrived priced realistically moved fast, with Sarasota weekly sale medians holding at $405,000 to $410,000 and sellers achieving 91 to 93 percent of list price on the homes that closed. The Realtor.com metro series, via FRED, still shows median list prices running about 4 percent below a year earlier, the same deliberate pricing discipline that has marked this market all year.

Condos: New Listings and Pending Sales

The condo and townhome segment is where the September supply-demand story sharpened again. The segment produced the region's largest year-over-year gains, with closings up 34.3 percent in Sarasota County in September and 20.9 percent regionwide for the quarter, and the inventory side kept shrinking underneath it: Sarasota County condo and townhome active listings were down 12.0 percent year over year for the quarter, and months of supply fell from 6.8 at mid-year to 4.9 by quarter-end. Regionwide, condo and townhome supply now sits near 4.9 to 5.0 months, close to balanced, but trending tighter every month as buyers who sat out the correction keep coming back.

The Venice read makes the pipeline visible: 414 condos, townhouses, and villas active with 121 pending, and 4.6 months of supply, against 90 sales in the last 30 days. Two honest caveats belong here. First, the freshest single-month county detail for the segment still comes with the report lag that has marked this market all year, so some figures above carry the August or Q3 label where September detail is not published separately. Second, condo buyers remain deliberate, reviewing reserve studies, meeting minutes, and insurance costs before they commit, which is exactly why the segment's recovery is durable rather than speculative. The direction is clear regardless: the segment that offered the most negotiating room two years ago now moves on its own timetable.

Townhouses: New Listings and Pending Sales

One honest note before the townhouse numbers: every source that publishes this market tracks condos and townhouses as a single segment, so a townhouse-only weekly or monthly figure does not exist. RASM, the local MLS summaries, and the weekly tallies all report the combined condo and townhome category, and townhouses are the smaller share of it. The combined figures above are, for practical purposes, the townhouse market's report card: inventory down roughly 12 percent year over year in Sarasota County, closings up more than a third in September, and months of supply tightening faster than any other property type.

What that means on the ground: townhouse buyers in communities from Lakewood Ranch to Venice are finding fewer options and more competition than they did a year ago. The segment still offers the value gap buyers want, pricing between condos and single-family homes, and in Venice the spread is wide, near a $320,000 townhome median against a $479,000 single-family median. But the days of touring a dozen townhomes and choosing are over. If a townhome fits how you want to live, the right move is to be pre-approved and ready before the next one lists, not after it goes pending.

Inventory Levels and Months of Supply

The months-of-supply table shows a region that is not uniform but is tightening almost everywhere. Sarasota County's single-family market operated near 3.7 months of supply by quarter-end, down from 4.8 at mid-year, the tightest of the three counties, with active inventory running more than 16 percent below a year ago. Manatee County sat near 3.9 months on single-family homes in the August report, with condo and townhome supply near 4.9 months, and its active inventory falling in both segments. Charlotte County remains the balanced-to-buyer-friendly outlier at 4.9 months overall, still the region's value market and the one place where buyers can take their time.

Absorption Rate Analysis

Absorption rate measures how quickly available homes sell, and the September numbers confirm the region is absorbing inventory at a healthy clip. In Charlotte County, where the data is cleanest, 529 closings against roughly 4.9 months of supply works out to about 20 percent of inventory absorbed per month, a balanced-to-firm rate. Sarasota County's single-family market, at 3.7 months of supply, implies an absorption rate near 27 percent per month, the kind of reading consistent with a seller-leaning market and with the price stability the region has shown all year. Venice is the fastest mover of all: 198 single-family sales in the last 30 days against 496 active listings, a rate that matches its 2.5 months of supply, though with 78 average days on market, each sale still takes time to complete.

The condo and townhome segment sits near 4.9 to 5.0 months of supply, an absorption rate around 20 percent per month, with Sarasota County's 309 September closings against a shrinking active base confirming the direction. What these numbers mean together is simple: the region is not overbuilt and not oversupplied. It is absorbing inventory steadily in every segment, and the segment absorbing fastest is the one most buyers have been trained to think of as the softest. These derived absorption rates are estimates built from the cited inventory and sales figures, not published statistics, but they align with the official months-of-supply readings from RASM and the local MLS.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers: the inventory picture is not improving, and waiting is likely to mean fewer options, not better ones. Sarasota County single-family supply sits near 3.7 months and is falling, and the segment with the most room, condos and townhouses, is tightening the fastest. The practical strategy is unchanged and now more urgent: get pre-approved, decide on your must-haves, and be ready to act on the right property when it lists. In Charlotte County, you still have genuine time and negotiating room, which is why it remains the strongest value play in the region.

For sellers: the market is moving in your favor across all three property types, but it rewards accuracy, not ambition. Homes priced within the market are moving to pending within weeks, while homes that carry a 2022-era premium sit and accumulate days on market. Median list prices running about 4 percent below a year ago are not a warning to price low. They are a sign that the listings moving fastest are the ones priced honestly on day one, and sellers who land within 2 to 3 percent of current value are the ones collecting the offers.

Kim's Expert Commentary on Supply and Demand

The most important dynamic in this market is still a supply problem with no fast fix. We are not building enough homes to replace what sells, and existing owners are staying put because their mortgage rates are lower than today's. The September new listings data shows no surge coming, and pending single-family sales eased only because the pool of homes to buy kept shrinking. Even if rates ease, the inventory pipeline takes months to respond. For buyers who are ready and qualified, waiting for selection to improve is the choice most likely to disappoint.

The condo and townhome turnaround remains the story I find most encouraging, because it keeps happening for the right reasons. Florida's reserve requirements created a long, necessary reset, and the buyers coming into the segment now are doing the homework that reset demanded: they review reserve studies, budget for assessments, and ask about insurance before they commit. That careful demand is durable. It is not the speculative wave of 2021. It is the kind that holds value, and it is why the segment's recovery has carried through three consecutive quarters.

For the full picture of what closed in September and at what prices, read the companion post: Sarasota Market Update: September 2026 - Homes Sold. To see the quarter's broader sweep, the Q3 2026 market report covers all three months. For the buying side, the Buying Guide covers preparation, and the Selling Guide covers pricing, preparation, and timing.

Reach me at (941) 724-2587 or schedule a conversation. I am Kim Donahue, REALTOR with Medway Realty, license SL3352997, serving buyers and sellers across Sarasota, Manatee, and Charlotte Counties.